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Analyze prediction error

Machine Learning Medium Seen in real interview

Assume that we are running a simple logit to solve a problem but find the results to be unsatisfactory. What are some ways we might improve the model?

To improve a model, it will help understanding what is currently not working. Here are some ideas:

  • Learning curves will help isolate the problem.

    • If this is a high-variance issue (higher error in test than training), then we can use RF, remove features, use regularization, get more data, etc.

    • If this is a high-bias issue (training and testing error high), we can add features, gradient boosting, add complexity.

We can also try the following:

  • Run optimization longer (more iterations) \(\rightarrow\) Fixes optimization algorithm

  • Change optimization method \(\rightarrow\) Fixes optimization algorithm

  • Hyperparameter tuning \(\rightarrow\) Fixes optimization objective

  • Alternative models (e.g., non linear models) \(\rightarrow\) Fixes optimization objective

  • Ablative analysis could also be useful if this was a multistep framework.


Topics

Prediction error, Bias-variance tradeoff, Diagnostics, Learning curves
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